改节奏不改方向！机构：仍然看好有色

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the non-ferrous metals market, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate narrative and profit-taking activities, indicating a shift in trading patterns while maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the sector [2][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in prices of precious metals like gold and silver, as well as non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc, have been significant due to the Federal Reserve's changing narrative and profit-taking [2]. - Market institutions suggest that the non-ferrous metals sector will enter a phase of reduced volatility in the short term, with a supportive fundamental backdrop expected in the latter part of the first quarter [2][8]. - The current non-ferrous cycle is characterized by a backdrop of de-globalization, reshaping of overseas manufacturing, and unconventional inventory accumulation, which may lead to a prolonged cycle compared to traditional monetary cycles [2][8]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Nomination - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has been identified as a catalyst for increased market volatility, as his hawkish stance during his tenure as a Fed governor has raised concerns among investors [4][5]. - The market's reaction to Warsh's nomination has led to a "hawkish trade," resulting in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, which negatively impacted assets benefiting from dollar liquidity [4][5]. - Analysts believe that while the hawkish narrative from the Fed has contributed to recent volatility, the fundamental logic supporting the metals market remains intact, with strong demand and low supply continuing to drive prices [6][9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, expecting a resurgence of upward momentum in prices by mid-year, supported by strong fundamentals [8][9]. - Key metals such as gold, copper, and aluminum are recommended as foundational investment choices, with additional interest in minor metals like rare earths, natural uranium, and tin [9]. - The ongoing global inventory accumulation trend, driven by de-globalization, is anticipated to provide new growth points for metal prices, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in the market [9].