五年萎缩84%：美元基金的「失落时代」

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese venture capital market is transitioning from a dual-driven model of RMB and USD funds to a predominantly RMB-driven landscape, raising questions about the future role of USD funds in this new environment [6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - USD funds have experienced a dramatic decline, with total investment shrinking by over 84% in five years, and their market share dropping from one-third to just 10% [8][12]. - In 2021, USD investments accounted for 35.9% of the market with an investment amount of 532.9 billion yuan, but by 2025, this figure plummeted to 82.7 billion yuan, representing only 10.1% of the market [12][13]. - Conversely, RMB funds have increased their market share from 64.1% to 89.9%, indicating a significant shift in funding dynamics [13]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline of USD Funds - The rise of state-owned and industrial capital has become a dominant force in the market, with state-backed investment institutions achieving a direct investment penetration rate of 45% [16]. - The traditional VC growth model has collapsed, leading to a lack of funding in the growth stage, which is critical for USD funds that typically support companies transitioning to overseas listings [18]. - External factors such as regulatory changes and geopolitical risks have hindered traditional exit strategies for USD funds, making their investment outlook increasingly pessimistic [19]. Group 3: Future of USD Funds - USD funds may not completely disappear but will need to shift from being the main players to providing specialized value as secondary players in the market [21]. - Potential niches for USD funds include serving as global enablers for Chinese companies aiming for international expansion, acting as catalysts in cutting-edge technology sectors, and focusing on early-stage investments to discover disruptive innovations [22][23].