2026年美国经济冷热分化仍将扩大

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a coexistence of "summer of growth" and "winter of employment," with increasing operational pressures on small and medium enterprises and a divergence in consumer spending across different income levels [1] - The "employment-consumption" chain in the U.S. has significantly slowed down, with the unemployment rate continuing its upward trend since the second half of 2025 [1] Financial Market Dynamics - In 2025, the U.S. stock market faced historical challenges due to tariff impacts, fiscal shifts, and industrial waves, but rebounded after initial shocks [1] - The "DeepSeek moment" and the April "reciprocal tariffs" caused market tremors, yet the market sentiment surged due to the AI investment wave led by companies like OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle [1] - By year-end, doubts about the AI narrative emerged as tech giants increased capital expenditures despite shrinking cash flows and heightened reliance on external financing [1] Economic Structure - The K-shaped economic structure in the U.S. is expected to persist, with a widening gap between AI-related sectors and the broader economy [2][5] - AI investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, while private consumption added 1.1 percentage points, indicating AI's role as a growth engine [5][6] - The disparity in economic performance is reflected in the increasing share of equity assets in net worth, with a significant wealth accumulation of approximately $20 trillion from corporate equity from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 [5] Employment Trends - The trend of rising unemployment and weak non-farm job growth suggests that the Federal Reserve's expectations for supply-side weakness to curb unemployment need to be adjusted [8] - The labor market's instability and high volatility in job creation are impacting the consumption-employment-income chain in the U.S. [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under pressure to provide greater easing to support both the AI sector and the struggling real economy [9] - If the economy remains stable, the Fed may continue to lower rates by 25 basis points per quarter, potentially reaching a terminal rate of 3%-3.25% by mid-2026 [10] - In a cooling economy, the Fed might lower rates to a range of 2.5%-2.75% while expanding its balance sheet more aggressively [10] AI Investment Landscape - The AI investment narrative in the U.S. is under scrutiny, with concerns about the sustainability of high valuations and the interconnectedness of major tech firms [12][13] - The current AI investment scale and concentration far exceed that of the 2000 internet bubble, raising systemic risk concerns if major players face issues [12] - The reliance on external financing and competitive capital expenditures among tech giants may deepen vulnerabilities in the AI investment narrative [12]