中国真要收紧对日稀土出口管制？

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented export restrictions on three key areas to Japan, particularly affecting high-tech industries reliant on rare earth elements, which could significantly impact Japan's economy if these exports are curtailed [4][5]. Group 1: Export Restrictions - China prohibits exports to three specific sectors: (1) military users in Japan, (2) exports for military purposes, and (3) exports that may enhance Japan's military capabilities [4][5]. - The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is particularly concerned about the third category, as it could broadly affect various industries, including those producing dual-use technologies like AI and drones [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - According to the Japan Research Institute, a one-year interruption of rare earth imports could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.9% [4]. - Historical data shows that a significant reduction in rare earth imports in 2010 led to a 0.25% decrease in Japan's GDP [4]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - Automotive manufacturers and other industries that rely on rare earth magnets and motors are worried about production disruptions due to dwindling inventories [8]. - In December 2025, China's exports of rare earth magnets to Japan decreased by 8%, attributed to longer approval times for export licenses [8]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Japanese companies are accelerating efforts to secure alternative rare earth resources, including successful seabed sampling near Minami-Torishima, which contains high concentrations of rare earth elements [8]. - The Japan-China Chamber of Commerce has submitted a proposal to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, urging the enforcement of policies that do not affect civilian goods [8].