重磅发声！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may need to implement one or two more interest rate cuts to address the weakness in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Mary Daly expressed concerns about the current state of American workers, highlighting that rising prices are eroding wage income and that new job opportunities are scarce [3]. - Daly supports the decision to pause interest rate cuts but believes there are valid reasons for further cuts, contingent on the gradual fading of tariff policy impacts and a confirmed downward trend in inflation [4]. - The labor market outlook is perceived to be more severe than current data suggests, with potential increases in layoffs if businesses fail to meet expected demand [4][5]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key macroeconomic data, including January non-farm employment figures and the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be released next week, which are crucial for assessing the Fed's policy direction [7]. - Analysts expect January non-farm employment growth to be between 60,000 and 80,000; a figure below this range could heighten expectations for rate cuts [7]. - The January core CPI is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the overall CPI expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.5% [8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in July, with probabilities for rate cuts in March and April also being assessed [9]. - As of now, the probability of a 25 basis point cut by March stands at 23.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 76.8% [9].