有色巨震后，错杀机会凸显？

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental logic of "tight supply and steady demand" remains unchanged, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [5][9]. Group 1: Market Volatility Factors - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the "negative gamma effect" amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [11][12]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a reversal in policy expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut forecasts and impacting precious metals prices significantly [13][14][15]. - The "negative gamma effect" exacerbated the situation, where speculative funds, heavily leveraged in the futures and options markets, were forced to liquidate positions as prices fell below key support levels, creating a vicious cycle of selling [17][18]. Group 2: Seasonal and Sentiment Pressures - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, characterized by a demand lull and conservative funding behavior, further intensified the downward pressure on prices, as many downstream industries typically halt operations before the holiday [19][20][21]. - The collective withdrawal of funds from the market, driven by risk aversion, left the non-ferrous sector without sufficient support, compounding the effects of policy and leverage adjustments [22]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term emotional disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain intact, with several sub-sectors showing signs of mispricing and potential for recovery [23]. - The long-term investment logic for precious metals remains solid, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and unresolved U.S. debt issues, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces by December 2025 [24]. - In industrial metals, the supply-demand balance for copper and zinc remains tight, with production in major countries like Chile and Peru falling short of expectations [25]. - Energy metals and minor metals continue to face supply constraints, with lithium prices affected by sentiment and uncertainties in production processes, while rare earth elements like praseodymium and neodymium are experiencing price increases due to tightening global supply [26][27][28]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-induced turbulence has not altered the fundamental supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal industry, instead providing a rational entry point for medium to long-term investments [31]. - As global energy transitions and de-globalization trends continue, the supply-demand equilibrium in the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to persist, presenting structural investment opportunities [32].