重磅发声！美联储突发大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may need to implement one or two more rate cuts to address the weakness in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly [2][3][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - The current situation for American workers is challenging, with rising prices eroding wage income and a scarcity of new job opportunities [4]. - Daly expressed greater concern about the labor market compared to inflation, noting an increase in parents reporting difficulties for their children in finding jobs, particularly among recent college graduates [7]. - There is a risk of increased layoffs if companies find that expected demand does not materialize, although Daly does not foresee a significant rise in inflation due to stable inflation expectations [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Data and Predictions - Key macroeconomic data, including the January non-farm payrolls and core Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be released soon, which will provide important insights into the Fed's policy direction [8]. - Analysts expect the January non-farm payroll growth to be between 60,000 and 80,000; a figure below this range could heighten expectations for rate cuts [8]. - The January core CPI is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the overall CPI expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.5% [9]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in July, with probabilities for rate cuts in March and April also being assessed [10]. - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut by March stands at 23.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 76.8% [10].