贵金属进入“高波动阶段”，资金策略转向波段操作

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices undergoing drastic fluctuations, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards short-term trading [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The London gold spot price saw a daily maximum price difference of around $300 per ounce, while silver experienced 11 instances of over 5% fluctuations in just seven trading days, with a monthly volatility exceeding 100% [2]. - Gold ETFs faced substantial redemptions, with a total shrinkage of over 22 billion yuan in the week, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][4]. - Speculative positions in COMEX gold futures decreased significantly, with net long positions dropping by 27,983 contracts, reflecting a change in market dynamics [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Market Sentiment - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised silver futures margin requirements seven times since December 2025, indicating heightened volatility and potential market turning points [5]. - Analysts warn that the current market sentiment has shifted, with gold transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a high-volatility risk asset, leading to increased short-term trading [4][5]. Group 3: Institutional Warnings and Adjustments - Various institutions have lowered short-term expectations for precious metals, cautioning investors about potential further sell-offs [7]. - Analysts from MKS PAMP predict that silver may need to digest previous excessive gains before any rebound, with prices potentially dropping to $60 per ounce [7]. - Investment strategies are being adjusted to account for high volatility, with a focus on waiting for market speculation to subside before making further investments [7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, supported by limited supply and ongoing central bank purchases [8]. - China's official gold reserves increased to 74.19 million ounces as of January 2026, reflecting a continuous accumulation trend by the central bank [8]. - Factors such as de-globalization, a weakening dollar, and persistent central bank buying provide structural support for gold prices in the long run [8].