日本众议院选举落定，日元日债为何下跌？“高市交易”重启？

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese House of Representatives election resulted in a majority for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, leading to a significant rise in the stock market and a historical high for the Nikkei 225 index, which surpassed 57,000 points for the first time [3][5][6]. Market Reaction - Following the election results, the Nikkei 225 index increased by 5.6% to 57,337 points, while the TOPIX index rose over 3%, reaching a new historical high [5]. - The real estate sector led the gains in the Nikkei index with an increase of over 7%, followed by healthcare and industrial sectors [6]. Economic Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that the election outcome may shift the government's focus from "old high market trading" characterized by fiscal expansion and a weak yen to "new high market trading" emphasizing structural and regulatory reforms [3][6]. - The success of the ruling coalition is viewed as a potential catalyst for strategic investments and tax reforms that could further boost the Japanese stock market [6]. Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - The yen has faced significant depreciation, dropping approximately 6% against the dollar and reaching a two-week low of 157.95 [8]. - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose nearly 4 basis points to 2.274%, indicating market concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability [8][9]. Investment Sentiment - Investment professionals express a continued interest in Japanese assets, particularly in sectors like defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, which are expected to benefit from increased government spending [7][9]. - Despite the negative outlook for the yen, there is a belief that if Japan's economy continues to grow, the currency may stabilize within a certain range [9]. Future Outlook - The election results are likely to increase the probability of the dollar-yen exchange rate moving from the previous range of 155-160 to 160-165 [10]. - Market participants are cautious about potential currency interventions by Japanese authorities, especially as the yen approaches critical levels that have previously triggered intervention [10].