自民党大胜，如何牵动股市、日元与金价？

Core Viewpoint - The election results in Japan are expected to facilitate the implementation of "responsible active fiscal policies" under Prime Minister Kishida, potentially leading to a weaker yen and impacting global markets, including gold [2][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the election, the Nikkei average index opened significantly higher, reflecting market optimism regarding Kishida's policies, with a 19% increase compared to the index level before Kishida's election as party president [4]. - The Nikkei futures index rose sharply, with a 4% increase on February 7, indicating strong market sentiment [6]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Policies - Analysts predict that Kishida's administration will likely push for yen depreciation, with the yen trading at approximately 157.20 yen per dollar, a decline of about 5 yen from previous highs [6]. - The increase in ruling party seats is expected to reduce pressure for excessive fiscal expansion from opposition parties, potentially alleviating long-term interest rate pressures [8]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The election outcome may influence global gold market trends, as concerns over fiscal expansion could lead to accelerated selling of Japanese government bonds, prompting a shift of safe-haven investments towards gold [8]. - Market analysts suggest that if Japanese bonds are sold off, there could be significant upward movement in gold prices during trading sessions [8].