【商用车】2026年1月轻型商用车市场预测研究报告

Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have announced the continuation of the "Two New" policy for 2026, which supports the replacement of old vehicles and promotes new energy vehicles, particularly electric vans and cold chain vehicles [2][3] - The policy optimizes support for old operational trucks, expanding the subsidy range to include trucks with National IV emissions standards and below, while prioritizing the replacement with electric trucks [3] - For passenger vehicles, the subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles is set at 20,000 yuan per vehicle, while the subsidy for fuel vehicles is capped at 15,000 yuan [3] Product Trend Analysis - The policy environment presents a "one disadvantage, two advantages" counterbalancing situation, indicating mixed impacts on the market [5] Sales Forecast - The light commercial vehicle market is expected to maintain stability amid structural adjustments, with sales projected to reach approximately 2.911 million units in 2026, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [25] - The penetration rate of new energy in light commercial vehicles is anticipated to reach 43% by 2026, with specific segments like light buses expected to have a penetration rate of 75% [13][25] Strategic Directions for Enterprises - Companies are advised to develop strategies focusing on product matrix segmentation, enhancing service systems, expanding overseas markets, and increasing brand value [17]