事关美联储“缩表”！美国财长，紧急发声

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's potential balance sheet reduction, emphasizing that Treasury Secretary Becerra does not expect rapid action under the leadership of Fed Chair nominee Kevin Walsh [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Becerra stated that the Federal Reserve may take up to a year to decide on its balance sheet adjustments, indicating a cautious approach [3]. - The Fed restarted its balance sheet expansion in December, initiating a short-term Treasury purchase program to manage market liquidity [3]. - Analysts express concerns that significant adjustments to the Fed's current $6 trillion securities portfolio could increase market volatility and raise deeper worries about the Fed's independence [1][8]. Group 2: Walsh's Proposed Reforms - Walsh's proposal to establish a new version of the 1951 Fed-Treasury agreement aims to redefine the relationship between the two institutions, potentially impacting the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market [8]. - If the reform is merely administrative, its short-term impact on the Treasury market may be limited; however, substantial changes could lead to increased market fluctuations [8]. - Analysts suggest that Becerra and Walsh share a critical stance on prolonged quantitative easing, which they believe undermines the market's ability to signal important financial information [8]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - There is a general expectation that a more substantial agreement may involve a significant shift in the Fed's asset holdings, moving from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [9]. - Deutsche Bank strategists predict that under Walsh's leadership, the Fed could become an active buyer of Treasury bills, with their share in the Fed's portfolio potentially rising from less than 5% to 55% over the next five to seven years [9].