21世纪经济报道·2026-02-09 14:21Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrowing of the AH premium, highlighting the significant reduction in the discount rate for companies listed in both A-shares and H-shares, with a focus on the factors driving this trend and the implications for market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: AH Premium Dynamics - The AH premium has decreased significantly, with the recent listing of Dongpeng Beverage showing a discount rate of only 14%, the second lowest since 2015, compared to an average of about 33% [1]. - The Hang Seng A-share premium index has declined from a near ten-year high of 161.36 points in February 2024 to 119.44 points by February 2026, returning to levels seen in 2019 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Premium Narrowing - The core reason for the narrowing AH premium is the recovery of liquidity discounts in the Hong Kong market, driven by increased participation from southbound funds, a weak dollar environment, and improved earnings in the Hong Kong market [3]. - Southbound funds have reached a record net inflow of 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025, with over 120 billion HKD net inflow recorded in early 2026, indicating a strong trend of capital flow into the Hong Kong market [5]. Group 3: Market Structure and Investor Behavior - The participation of southbound funds has increased from 20% at the beginning of 2024 to around 35%, enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors in the Hong Kong market [6]. - The liquidity gap between A-shares and H-shares has narrowed due to the influx of southbound funds, which have improved the liquidity conditions in the Hong Kong market [5]. Group 4: Valuation Disparities and Market Preferences - Some leading companies have experienced a phenomenon where H-shares are priced higher than A-shares, with notable examples including CATL and China Merchants Bank, indicating a preference for globally competitive firms by foreign investors [7]. - The article notes a "Matthew Effect" in the market, where larger companies enjoy better valuations, while smaller companies face greater discounts, with smaller IPOs often seeing discounts of around 50% compared to larger firms [10][11]. Group 5: Future Trends and Market Adjustments - The trend of narrowing AH premiums and structural differentiation is expected to continue, with high-quality leading stocks potentially experiencing a "premium inversion" becoming a norm [12]. - Adjustments in listing rules allowing growth companies to list in Hong Kong may attract more high-growth firms to global investors, further influencing the AH premium dynamics [12].