第一财经·2026-02-09 15:10Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival film market is expected to shift from a "one strong, many strong" pattern in 2025 to a "multi-strong competition" landscape, with a focus on lower-tier markets and female audiences as key competitive factors [4][10]. Film Lineup - Eight films have been scheduled for the 2026 Spring Festival, with total box office revenue (including previews) exceeding 540 million yuan as of February 9 [3][4]. - The films set to release include "Fast Life 3," "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bear," "The Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert," "Silent Awakening," "Star River in Dream," and "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventures," with a documentary "Return to the Wolf Pack" re-releasing on the third day of the new year [3]. Market Trends - The Spring Festival box office has seen significant growth, from 1.451 billion yuan in 2014 to 9.514 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a more than 5.5 times increase [4]. - The 2025 Spring Festival set a new record for box office revenue, driven by "Ne Zha," confirming the explosive potential of the Chinese film market [4]. Audience Insights - Audience preferences for new films vary significantly, with "Silent Awakening" appealing to younger and female viewers, while "The Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert" attracts male audiences [4]. - Lower-tier cities have contributed over half of the box office revenue for three consecutive years, with regions like Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Hebei being key battlegrounds [10]. Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce launched the "Happy New Year" campaign to stimulate holiday consumption, encouraging local governments to offer viewing discounts during the Spring Festival [5]. Industry Participation - Numerous listed companies, including Maoyan Entertainment, Bona Film Group, China Film, Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, and Light Media, have heavily invested in the Spring Festival films [7][8]. Challenges Ahead - The 2026 Spring Festival may face challenges due to the high box office base set in 2025, with cautious scheduling and marketing strategies from domestic film producers [11][12]. - The overall audience demand is showing a trend towards concentration at the top, with potential for surprise hits in a market with low expectations [11].