节前揽储大战升级

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying competition among banks for deposits ahead of the Spring Festival, highlighting strategies employed by both small and large banks to attract customers through interest rate adjustments and promotional incentives [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Competition - Small banks are raising interest rates on specific deposit products, with some rural commercial banks offering three-year deposit rates close to 2% [3][5]. - Over 10 small banks have increased deposit rates since the beginning of 2026, particularly targeting specific products and higher minimum deposit amounts [5]. - Large banks are not directly raising rates but are enhancing their deposit acquisition efforts through rewards and incentives, such as cash rebates and points for new customers [6]. Group 2: Expectations on Deposit Flows - The competition for deposits reflects banks' anticipation of a significant amount of term deposits maturing in 2026, with expectations that most of these funds will remain within the banking system [4][8]. - Estimates suggest that approximately 75 trillion yuan of household term deposits will mature in 2026, with 67 trillion yuan being one year or longer [8]. - Despite concerns about potential "deposit migration" to the stock market, industry insiders believe that the majority of maturing funds will continue to circulate within the banking system [8][9]. Group 3: Trends in Risk Appetite - The increase in maturing deposits is not particularly pronounced, with annual growth rates of 4 trillion to 7 trillion yuan observed since 2022 [9]. - Current low-risk appetite among residents is evident, as data shows a negative correlation between income confidence and savings willingness [9]. - Historical trends indicate that periods of declining savings willingness often coincide with rising income expectations [9]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Post-Maturity - Funds from maturing deposits are expected to flow primarily into low-risk assets, such as bank wealth management products and money market funds [11][13]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that during similar economic conditions, residents increased their holdings in cash, deposits, and insurance while reducing investments in stocks and high-risk assets [10][12]. - The preference for low-risk investments is expected to continue, with a significant portion of maturing deposits likely being allocated to wealth management products [13][14].