17省“十五五”GDP增长目标公布

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth targets set by various provinces in China for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with most provinces aiming for an average annual growth rate of around 5% over the next five years, reflecting a shift towards high-quality development amidst economic challenges [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Growth Targets - 17 provinces have announced their growth targets, with most setting an average annual growth rate of approximately 5%. Notable exceptions include Hainan with a target of over 6%, and Xinjiang aiming for 5.5%-6% [6][10]. - Specific growth targets for various provinces include: - Heilongjiang: 4.5%-5% - Jilin: around 5% - Beijing: around 5% with a range of 4.5%-5% - Guangdong: around 5% [7][8]. Economic Analysis - The Chief Economist Forum member, Liao Bo, indicates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" plays a crucial role in achieving socialist modernization, predicting a national GDP average growth rate of around 5% during this period. The contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth is expected to rise to about 60% [8][9]. - The report highlights that as China transitions to a higher-income economy, the era of rapid economic growth is ending, with investment and consumption growth rates declining due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and de-globalization [8][9]. Provincial Insights - Provinces like Jiangxi and Sichuan have set growth targets that aim to narrow the gap with national averages, with Jiangxi targeting around 5% and Sichuan emphasizing progress in economic strength and innovation [9][10]. - Guangdong's growth target of around 5% is significant given its recent economic pressures, including a 3.9% growth in 2025, which is below the target. The province faces challenges from the real estate market adjustment and needs to adapt to maintain its growth trajectory [11][12]. Investment Trends - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment is highlighted as a key indicator of economic stability, with a reported growth of 7.2% in 2025, significantly above the national average. This reflects a recovery in private investment across various sectors [11][10]. - The article notes that Guangdong's economic transformation is ongoing, with the real estate sector's downturn impacting overall investment and consumption, posing both short-term and long-term challenges [12].