日股再创新高，软银大涨超10%，全球掀起日债日元抛售潮

Group 1 - Japanese stock market shows strong performance with Nikkei 225 index rising over 2%, reaching a historical high, while SoftBank Group surged over 10% [1] - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party secured a majority in the recent elections, leading to expectations of continued fiscal expansion and delayed interest rate hikes [2][4] - Following the election results, the Japanese yen and government bonds faced selling pressure, with the yen trading at 155.9 against the US dollar and 5-year government bond yields reaching a record high of 1.725% [1][2] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the government's fiscal expansion will require more bond issuance, leading to increased supply and downward pressure on bond prices [2][4] - Japan's government approved a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025, which is over 30% larger than the previous year's budget, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [4] - The latest economic outlook report indicates a projected deficit of approximately 800 billion yen (about 5.1 billion USD) for the upcoming fiscal year, despite being the smallest deficit since 2001 [4] Group 3 - Analysts express concerns that the current fiscal policies may worsen Japan's already high debt burden and weaken the creditworthiness of Japanese government bonds [7] - The ongoing depreciation of the yen is expected to continue, with potential intervention from authorities if the yen approaches 160 against the dollar [5][7] - The likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in April is increasing, but economic challenges such as declining GDP and real wages complicate the decision [6][9] Group 4 - Japan's economy is facing structural challenges, including input-driven inflation and weak domestic demand, which are limiting consumer spending and overall economic growth [8] - The upcoming spring labor negotiations will be crucial for determining wage growth, which could influence the Bank of Japan's ability to normalize interest rates [9]