中国财政资金支出结构悄然生变：更多资金投资于人，基建支出下滑明显

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in China's fiscal spending structure, highlighting a decline in infrastructure investment and a shift towards human capital investment amid increasing fiscal revenue-expenditure contradictions [3]. Fiscal Spending Trends - In 2025, key infrastructure-related expenditures such as agricultural, forestry, water, and transportation saw declines of 13.2%, 5%, and 0.7% respectively, leading to an overall decrease of approximately 7.8% compared to 2024 [4]. - The total fixed asset investment in China for 2025 was about 48.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) down by 2.2% [4][5]. Debt and Investment Dynamics - The new special bond limit for 2025 is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, with only 2.5 trillion yuan allocated for infrastructure projects, a reduction of over 400 billion yuan from 2024 [4]. - The focus of government debt funding is shifting towards resolving existing hidden debts, resulting in reduced incremental funding for infrastructure [4]. Future Outlook for Infrastructure Investment - The 2026 economic work plan aims to stabilize investment, with expectations for infrastructure investment growth to rebound to 8% due to low base effects and the implementation of new policy financial tools [9][10]. - Analysts predict a potential recovery in infrastructure investment growth rates to a range of 3% to 4.5% as the sector undergoes a "bottoming out and structural reshaping" process [11].