【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2026年2月4日-2月10日)

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with a total import and export value of 80,823.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1]. Group 1: Service Trade Overview - The export value of services is projected to reach 36,267.9 billion yuan, growing by 14.2%, while imports are expected to be 44,555.1 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.5% [1]. - The service trade deficit is anticipated to be 8,287.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,439.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Knowledge-Intensive Services - Knowledge-intensive service trade is expected to maintain growth, with a total import and export value of 30,879.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6% [1]. - Key segments such as other business services and telecommunications, computer, and information services are projected to have import and export values of 13,332.9 billion yuan and 11,038.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 5.5% and 10.4% respectively [1]. - The export of knowledge-intensive services is forecasted to be 18,321.2 billion yuan, growing by 10.5%, while imports are expected to be 12,558.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.3% [1]. - The surplus in knowledge-intensive services is projected to expand to 5,762.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1,581.7 billion yuan from the previous year [1]. Group 3: Travel Services - Travel services are expected to see significant growth, with total import and export values reaching 22,067 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.6% [1]. - The export of travel services is projected to grow by 49.5%, while imports are expected to increase by 1.4% [1]. Group 4: Trade with APEC Economies - In 2025, the total import and export value between China and other APEC economies is expected to reach 26.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.82% of the total foreign trade value [7]. - High-tech product exports are projected to be 4.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, while imports in key sectors such as energy, agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, and precision instruments are also expected to grow rapidly [7]. - New business models and cross-border e-commerce are anticipated to flourish, with digital trade and green trade becoming new highlights of foreign trade growth [7].