2026年新型储能三大悬念

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in installed capacity and favorable policies expected to further expand the market in 2026 [5][9]. Group 1: Independent Energy Storage - In Q4 2025, the independent energy storage market showed substantial enthusiasm, with a registered capacity of 152.27GW/409.63GWh, accounting for 74.6% of the total registered capacity, and an average project size exceeding 500MWh [6]. - The introduction of a capacity price compensation mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration is expected to provide a basic revenue guarantee for independent energy storage [9]. - Despite the capacity price mechanism, the overall internal rate of return (IRR) remains low, posing challenges for investment returns, and the performance requirements for energy storage systems are becoming more stringent [9]. Group 2: Commercial and Industrial Energy Storage - In 2025, the newly added installed capacity for commercial and industrial energy storage in China reached 12.11GWh [10]. - The cancellation of the administrative time-of-use pricing policy has shifted the market from administrative pricing to market supply and demand pricing, leading to a reassessment of project economics [10][14]. - The commercial and industrial energy storage sector is transitioning from a standalone arbitrage tool to an integrated part of the overall energy consumption curve, necessitating a shift in the role of energy storage companies [14]. Group 3: Long-Duration Energy Storage - By the end of 2025, the average discharge duration of energy storage projects increased by 40% compared to 2022, reaching 2.94 hours, with projects of 4 hours or more accounting for 14.8% of the total capacity [17]. - It is anticipated that by the end of 2026, the average project duration will exceed 3 hours, with a significant shift towards long-duration projects [17]. - The new policy regarding capacity pricing directly influences investment logic, incentivizing projects with discharge durations of 4 hours or more to receive 100% capacity compensation, while 2-hour projects receive only 50% [17].