日元弱势或延续至2027年？经济学家这样说

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about Japan's "re-inflation" risks are resurfacing as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party secures a supermajority in the House of Representatives, with expectations of a weak yen persisting until 2027, maintaining an exchange rate range of 150-160 yen per dollar [3][5]. Economic Conditions and Fiscal Policy - The Oxford Economics report indicates that the ruling party's proposal to potentially reduce the food consumption tax from 8% to zero could lead to an annual tax revenue loss of 5 trillion yen, but this will not alter fiscal forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to the lengthy approval process [5]. - The basic fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 2%-3% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, expected to persist until 2028 before gradually declining [5]. Inflation and Currency Dynamics - Japan is caught in a "vicious cycle" of currency depreciation and inflation, exacerbated by the central bank's lack of a strong anti-inflation stance, leading to increased risk premiums and further yen depreciation [6]. - The current inflation rate is around 3%, while short-term interest rates remain at 1%, indicating a lack of decisive action from the Bank of Japan to combat inflation, which maintains high inflation expectations [6]. Central Bank and Government Intervention - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates significantly to defend the yen, as it prefers to leave currency policy to the government, with the next expected rate hike in July [7][8]. - The central bank's cautious approach is influenced by the potential risks associated with yen financing arbitrage trades and the current political instability in Japan [8]. Asset Management and Market Trends - There is a trend towards reducing Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as part of a broader strategy to manage the central bank's balance sheet, especially given the high valuation of these assets [9]. - Historical interventions by Japan in the currency market have shown that such actions can only temporarily mitigate volatility without altering the underlying market trends driven by fundamental economic conditions [9].