新材料2026年度策略：11种有色金属核心逻辑分析（附PPT）

Global Economic Outlook - Global output growth is projected to slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies growing at 1.8% in 2024 and emerging markets at 4.3% [3] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, while China and India are projected to grow by 5.0% and 6.5% respectively [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation levels in most economies remain above pre-pandemic levels, with core inflation in the Eurozone, U.S., and U.K. expected to stabilize around 3% [11] - Central banks are currently in a monetary easing cycle, but uncertainties around tariffs are constraining their ability to lower interest rates [11][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with potential cuts in 2026 and 2027 [32] Trade and Tariff Impact - The WTO forecasts global merchandise trade growth to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2026, influenced by higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainties [12] - Tariff impacts are expected to shift into 2026, with risks of trade restrictions spreading to more economies and sectors [12] Commodity Market Outlook - A potential super cycle for commodities is anticipated, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors [11] - Demand for metals such as copper, lithium, and tungsten is expected to rise due to new energy technologies and infrastructure investments [58] - The price of gold is likely to be supported by both monetary easing and inflationary pressures [29][33] Fiscal Policy and Debt Levels - Fiscal policies in developed economies are expected to remain neutral to slightly accommodative, with public debt levels projected to rise significantly by 2030 [12] - The U.S. public debt is expected to increase from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, while the Eurozone's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 92% by 2030 [12] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is expected to continue a weak recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing systemic risks [20]