独家｜银行理财“开门红”未兑现！后续有望承接海量存款配置潮

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market experienced a decline in scale at the beginning of 2026, contrary to expectations for a strong start to the year, with a total scale of 24.59 trillion yuan at the end of January, down approximately 815 billion yuan from the previous month [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total scale of 14 major wealth management companies decreased by about 815 billion yuan compared to the end of 2025, marking a second consecutive month of decline since reaching a peak in November 2025 [2][3]. - The decline was primarily driven by the four major state-owned banks, which accounted for nearly 500 billion yuan of the total drop, with individual companies like Agricultural Bank of China Wealth Management, CCB Wealth Management, and ICBC Wealth Management each seeing declines exceeding 100 billion yuan [3]. - Despite the downturn, there is optimism in the industry, with expectations that the wealth management market will benefit from a reallocation of household wealth due to low fixed deposit rates and a large volume of deposits maturing in 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Product Trends - The decline in scale was mainly observed in two product categories: fixed-income pure bond products and cash management products, with fixed-income non-cash pure bond products dropping by approximately 560 billion yuan and cash management products decreasing by about 500 billion yuan [4][5]. - Conversely, "equity-linked" wealth management products experienced growth, particularly in "fixed income plus" and mixed products, with the total balance of "fixed income plus" products increasing by about 190 billion yuan to 4.14 trillion yuan [5]. - The shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches is becoming a common choice in the wealth management industry, reflecting a gradual transition from pure fixed income to "fixed income plus" strategies [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts predict a rebound in wealth management scale in February, estimating an increase of around 1 trillion yuan, driven by low deposit rates and year-end bonuses being distributed [4][6]. - Approximately 50 trillion yuan in deposits are set to mature this year, which is expected to lead to a significant reallocation of funds into wealth management, insurance, or asset management products [6][7]. - The focus on wealth management is increasing among banks, with strategies being implemented to enhance product offerings and meet customer needs, particularly for low-risk profiles [6][7].