贝莱德中国2026年投资前瞻：那些正被重构的资产配置逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The investment narrative has been fundamentally disrupted over the past year, necessitating a reevaluation of risk and return sources, and the construction of more resilient and adaptive portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Asset Allocation - Traditional pricing models for certain asset classes have changed, with reduced negative correlation between stocks and bonds, and weakened safe-haven attributes of long-term bonds [2]. - BlackRock China emphasizes the need for systematic layout in asset allocation, focusing on three main contradictions: regional allocation, strategic allocation, and thematic allocation to achieve true diversification [2]. - The current market is characterized by declining coupon levels, elevated overall market risks, and increased volatility in major asset classes [2]. Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The fixed income market requires a departure from traditional coupon strategies, exploring diversified paths for yield enhancement while moderating risk exposure [3]. - Fixed income assets are expected to maintain narrow fluctuations, constrained by easing expectations and actual policy support, while economic recovery continues to exert pressure on the bond market [3][4]. - New sources of fixed income returns include short-term trading, hedging or arbitrage strategies, quantitative strategies, and credit exploration, all while managing credit risk through top-down and bottom-up approaches [4]. Group 3: Equity and Multi-Asset Strategies - The current environment is unsuitable for "lazy" static allocations; active rebalancing is recommended to enhance portfolio resilience and return efficiency [7]. - Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) serves as a long-term anchor, while Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) allows for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions [7]. - The core consideration in multi-asset allocation remains the stock-bond ratio, with a focus on evaluating expected returns and risk across various asset classes [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The AI wave presents significant investment opportunities in power equipment and healthcare, with the potential for substantial growth driven by technological advancements [10]. - Traditional industries in A-shares are showing signs of profit correction, indicating solid investment opportunities as valuations rise based on improved fundamentals [10]. - The potential for alternative assets to enhance portfolio returns and smooth volatility is increasingly recognized, particularly in high-volatility environments [10].