聚焦全球能源 | 美国伊朗冲突的情景下，OPEC+产量策略何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran on OPEC+'s production strategy, particularly if conflict leads to disruptions in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [3][13]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - If the U.S. and Iran engage in conflict, OPEC+ may need to adjust its production roadmap, especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 30% of global maritime oil trade [3][4]. - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases until the first quarter of 2026, having raised output by about 288,000 barrels per day during most of 2025, reflecting a strategy to rebalance the market amid oversupply concerns [4]. - In the event of U.S. military action against Iran, OPEC+ is expected to increase oil supply to mitigate potential price spikes, with an estimated capacity to increase production by about 125,000 barrels per day [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Prices - The rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East pose a threat to OPEC's production, as conflicts could disrupt oil production in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, leading to significant impacts on global supply and prices [7]. - As of January 29, WTI crude oil prices were at a premium of $1.10 per barrel above fair value, indicating heightened market concerns over potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz due to U.S.-Iran tensions [8]. - The average risk premium for oil during major geopolitical conflicts since 2016 has been between $25 to $30 per barrel, suggesting that current tensions could push WTI prices to theoretical levels of $85 to $90 per barrel [8][9].