历史数据复盘！本轮春季行情走到什么阶段了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current stage of the spring market rally in A-shares, highlighting the historical calendar effect that typically leads to a "spring surge" around the New Year and the "Two Sessions" period, with most years experiencing this phenomenon except for 2022 and 2015 [1][7]. Historical Data Analysis - Historical data shows that the spring market rally has an average duration of about 40 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 13.97% in the Shanghai Composite Index [7]. - The starting points of past spring rallies are somewhat dispersed, primarily occurring in December (5 times), January (7 times), and February (3 times) since 2010 [7]. Current Market Outlook - The current policy environment, fundamental expectations, and liquidity conditions supporting the spring rally have not fundamentally changed, suggesting a high probability of market recovery post-Spring Festival [7][8]. - Historical trends indicate that the spring rally could provide around 20% upside potential, with the current market still having room for further development [4][8]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a short-term holding strategy during the holiday period, emphasizing the importance of focusing on high-probability stocks, particularly in sectors like power equipment, storage and semiconductor equipment, chemicals, engineering machinery, agriculture, and personal care [5][8]. - It is recommended to consider consumer and travel chains that benefit from the long holiday for potential low-cost investments [5]. Future Market Conditions - The next 1-2 months are expected to present favorable conditions for A-shares, with February and the period around the Spring Festival being historically the strongest for the "spring surge" effect, favoring small-cap stocks [4][8].