内房股“大翻身”？资金流入与股价共振，原因几何？

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of mainland property stocks has strengthened since 2026, significantly outperforming the average level of the Hong Kong stock market and attracting capital interest, including from the southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect [2][3]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Stock Performance - Despite uncertainties, many Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks have begun to attract capital, with notable increases in holdings by southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect funds since 2026. Among the 30 constituent stocks of the China Mainland Property Index, 18 have seen an increase in holdings, representing 60% [3]. - For instance, as of February 10, 2026, the number of shares held by the Hong Kong Stock Connect in China Resources Land increased by over 8 million shares from the end of 2025, raising the holding ratio from 10.52% to 11.75%. Similarly, China Overseas Development and New Town Development also saw significant increases in holdings during this period [4]. - The China Mainland Property Index has risen over 13% since 2026, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 6.38% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index's 3.98% during the same period. Specific stocks like China Jinmao, Greentown China, and China Overseas Hong Kong Group have seen cumulative increases exceeding 30% since 2026 [4]. Group 2: Policy and Market Confidence - The rise in interest for mainland property stocks is linked to improved housing policies and signs of market recovery. Recent reports indicate that property companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, although some distressed firms must still report financial metrics to local authorities [6]. - The introduction of a new financing model, including the "lead bank system," aims to streamline financing for real estate projects, allowing qualified projects to receive support from banks, which is expected to enhance market confidence [7]. - The "white list" loan extension policy is seen as an optimization of real estate financing support, easing funding pressures for projects and improving market expectations. This reflects a collaborative approach between banks and companies to navigate challenges in the real estate market [7]. - In January 2026, the second-hand housing market in 13 key cities showed a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 33%, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence despite ongoing structural challenges [8].