A股近十年节后首日6涨4跌

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy of holding stocks versus holding cash during the upcoming long Chinese New Year holiday, with a prevailing sentiment among institutions favoring "holding stocks" due to expectations of a spring market rally post-holiday [3][10]. Market Performance - A-shares are currently in a state of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing slight increases of 2.89% and 2.43% respectively from February 3 to February 11 [5]. - On February 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% to close at 4131.99 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% to 14160.93 points [6]. Historical Trends - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced 6 increases and 4 decreases on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, with notable declines in 2017 and 2020 [7]. - The average increase for the Wind All A-shares index in the first 10 trading days after the Spring Festival from 2017 to 2025 is 3.3%, compared to an average decline of 1.3% in the 10 trading days before the holiday [8]. Investment Strategies - The strategy of holding stocks during the holiday is supported by several analysts, citing factors such as a potential recovery in market sentiment and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the technology sector, particularly TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), tends to perform better post-holiday, with a high success rate in the first 5 and 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [8][13]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include materials such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and construction materials, as well as technology fields like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, which are aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [12].