恒生科技本轮最大回撤超20% 龙头企业应向“质量型增长”转变

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced a significant downturn since October 2025, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 20%, impacting major Hong Kong internet companies that are part of the index [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index and internet stocks to concerns over an AI bubble, profit-taking pressures, and ongoing competition characterized by "burning money" strategies [2][5]. - The market confidence has been affected by irrational spending, which has led to a lack of trust in the sustainability of internet companies' profitability [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Performance - From early 2025 to October, the Hang Seng Technology Index saw a maximum increase of over 50%, with Tencent's stock rising from a low of 361 HKD to 683 HKD, and Alibaba's stock increasing from 76 HKD to 186 HKD [4]. - The intense competition during the 2025 food delivery battle resulted in significant losses for major players, with Meituan reporting its largest loss since its IPO and Alibaba's operating profit plummeting by 85% [4][5]. Group 3: Shifts in Competitive Strategy - The traditional model of "burning money for scale" is becoming less effective as the industry faces diminishing returns on investment, leading to a fundamental shift in competition logic from user data to industrial value [9][10]. - Companies are now focusing on technology-driven growth and improving business efficiency rather than merely acquiring users through subsidies [9][10]. Group 4: AI Investment and Future Growth - As companies move away from the "burning money" mindset, they are increasingly investing in AI, which is seen as a core area for future growth and market interest [9][10]. - Major players like Alibaba and Tencent are committing substantial resources to AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion CNY in AI initiatives [9][10]. Group 5: Implications of AI Red Packet War - The recent AI red packet competition, while still involving significant spending, is on a smaller scale compared to previous battles, indicating a more restrained approach to market competition [7][8]. - The AI red packet war is expected to have a dual impact: it can enhance user engagement with AI technologies while also raising concerns about excessive subsidies that could harm smaller players [10].