谁在主导这场公募FOF的千亿狂欢？

Core Viewpoint - The public fund of funds (FOF) is undergoing a silent revolution, with significant growth in both market acceptance and product diversity, leading to a resurgence in investment opportunities and strategies [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average return of public FOFs over the past year is 17.9%, with top products capturing over 90% of this return, and the market size expected to exceed 244.1 billion by the end of 2025 [6]. - In just over a month, 36 new FOFs were launched, with several products raising over 4 billion in their initial offerings, making FOFs the third-largest issuance category this year after mixed and index funds [9]. - The liquidity of new FOF products has significantly increased, with holding periods reduced to 3 or 6 months, reflecting a shift in investment strategy towards more diversified asset classes [10][11]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The recognition of FOFs by institutional investors has risen, with the proportion of institutional holdings increasing from 16.34% at the end of 2024 to 26.82% by the end of 2025, a notable increase of 10.48 percentage points [12]. - The growth in institutional investment is primarily driven by mixed-asset FOFs, which are expected to support a second growth curve for FOFs [13]. Group 3: Historical Context - FOFs in China began in 2017 but faced challenges during the 2018 bear market, leading to a lack of investor confidence due to poor performance and management practices [15][16]. - The recovery in the stock market in 2019 marked the beginning of a prosperous phase for FOFs, with significant growth in both the number and size of pension-related FOF products [17][18]. - By the end of 2021, the size of FOFs surged from 10.7 billion at the end of 2018 to 210 billion, representing a growth of 1862% [19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for FOF management has shifted, with the concentration of top managers decreasing slightly, as new players emerge in the market [24][26]. - By the end of 2025, E Fund has become the largest FOF manager with 21.1 billion, surpassing previously dominant firms, indicating a significant shift in market preferences towards diversified and multi-strategy FOFs [25]. Group 5: Sales and Distribution Innovations - The sales model for FOFs is evolving, with banks like China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank playing a crucial role in driving growth through innovative distribution strategies [27][28]. - The "TREE Long-term Plan" by China Merchants Bank and the "Dragon Profit Plan" by China Construction Bank have successfully launched multiple FOF products, significantly boosting the overall market size [28][30]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The public FOF sector is transitioning into a phase characterized by mature strategies, empowered channels, and diverse demand, with expectations for continued growth driven by institutional investment and evolving wealth management needs [33].