胜率78%！持股过节？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies of "holding stocks during the festival" versus "holding cash during the festival," highlighting the significance of the Spring Festival on market dynamics and investor behavior [1]. Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - Historical data shows that the average return of the entire A-share market in the 10 trading days after the Spring Festival is 3.3%, while the average decline in the 10 trading days before is -1.3%, indicating a stronger post-festival performance [16][17]. - The trading volume in the A-share market has decreased to around 2.2 trillion yuan, with financing funds experiencing a net outflow for three consecutive weeks, consistent with the seasonal "calendar effect" before the Spring Festival [4][24]. - The market has shown a rebound this week, driven by AI catalysts, suggesting a prelude to the Spring Festival market dynamics [3][15]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Sentiment - Investors tend to lock in profits and reduce positions before the long holiday due to cash withdrawal demands and uncertainties in overseas markets, leading to decreased trading volumes and increased market volatility [5][6]. - The sentiment among institutions remains optimistic regarding the post-festival market, as the recent adjustments present significant recovery opportunities [18][19]. - The recent adjustments have released some risks, and global assets, including Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, have shown signs of stabilization, indicating a gradual recovery in global risk appetite [12]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Opportunities - The recent adjustments in the market have led to a quick rotation among sectors, with notable performances in light communication, computing power chains, commercial aerospace, and cultural media [15]. - The AI sector has been a significant driver of market performance, with the recent launch of ByteDance's AI video generation model, Seedance 2.0, creating a surge in the media sector [30][36]. - The article emphasizes the potential for resource-based sectors, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, to recover significantly due to supply-demand fundamentals [43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming macroeconomic data releases from both China and the U.S. are expected to provide insights into the improvement of the domestic economy and calibrate monetary policy expectations [19]. - The article suggests that the "Spring Rally" may continue into February and March, supported by ample liquidity and policy catalysts, encouraging investors to participate in the market [29][41].