WitsView睿智显示·2026-02-12 09:53Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone production is expected to decline by 10% in 2026 due to rising memory prices, potentially dropping to 1.135 billion units, with a pessimistic scenario predicting a decline of 15% or more [2][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - The significant increase in memory prices, with contract prices for 8GB+256GB models expected to rise nearly 200% in Q1 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, has led to the BOM cost share of memory in smartphones increasing from 10-15% to 30-40% [5]. - Brands are likely to raise terminal prices to maintain operations and may need to adjust product configurations to cope with the ongoing surge in memory prices [5]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Samsung, as the leading smartphone brand and a major player in the memory industry, is expected to see a decline in production, but the drop will be less severe due to its vertical integration advantages [5]. - Apple, with a higher proportion of high-end models, is better positioned to absorb rising memory costs and has a consumer base more accepting of price adjustments, providing some support for its production performance [5]. - Xiaomi and Transsion, which focus on lower-end models, are more sensitive to cost fluctuations and are expected to experience significant production cuts in 2026 due to the ongoing rise in memory prices [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Honor will face not only memory cost pressures but also strong competition from Huawei, which is expected to have the smallest production adjustment among brands and may even see growth due to its flexible pricing strategy [6]. - The current decline in terminal demand is attributed to rising memory prices, but the overall functionality of electronic devices has reached a level that satisfies most consumer needs, leading to longer replacement cycles and reduced upgrade momentum [6].