一级市场的新时代

Core Viewpoint - The primary conclusion is that the era of pre-sale housing in technology investment has become a certainty, indicating a prosperous future for the primary market over the next decade, with venture capital (VC) having two paths: maintaining integrity and taking risks [6][17][27]. Group 1: Changes in the Primary Market - By December 2025, a consensus among RMB primary market investors was formed, with significant changes observed in the investment landscape, particularly after the re-launch of the STAR Market's fifth set of standards in June 2025 [10][11]. - The market saw a rapid increase in enthusiasm, with companies like Moer Technology and Muxi achieving substantial market valuations shortly after their IPOs, indicating a shift in investment dynamics where the ability to go public is more about national necessity than profitability [11][12][13]. Group 2: Structural Differences from Previous Years - The year 2026 marks a fundamental shift compared to 2021, characterized by a genetic transformation and rule restructuring of state-owned capital, allowing for a long-term investment approach in strategic emerging industries [16][19][20]. - The investment duration for strategic emerging industries has been extended to 15-17 years, providing a more stable foundation for RMB technology investments and enabling state-owned capital to support innovation without the pressure of short-term profitability [20][21]. Group 3: The Invitation System for IPOs - The IPO process has transitioned into an "invitation system," where the allocation of IPO quotas is centrally planned and distributed, significantly enhancing the influence of state-owned capital in the investment landscape [22][23]. - In 2025, the total asset value of state-owned shares from 116 IPOs was estimated to be between 350 billion to 380 billion RMB, with the potential to generate an asset scale of 3.5 to 3.8 trillion RMB through leverage in the financial system [25][27]. Group 4: The Era of Pre-sale Housing in Technology Investment - The pre-sale housing model, which has driven China's economy for 20 years, is now mirrored in technology investment, where state-owned capital supports original innovation, leading to rapid commercialization and local economic development [28][29]. - The transition to this model is expected to be predictable, with macroeconomic conditions unlikely to reverse in the short term, although the inherent uncertainties in scientific research present additional complexities compared to real estate [31][33]. Group 5: Strategies for Venture Capital - Two strategies for VC in this new era are identified: "maintaining integrity" by competing on the right side through strength and "taking risks" by making bold predictions on the left side [34][39]. - The success of technology commercialization hinges on the ability to secure orders, making it crucial for early-stage investors to focus on commercial viability rather than just technological potential [36][37]. Group 6: Demand-Side Opportunities - The expansion of the benefits chain is essential for the sustainability of technology investment, as the lack of consumer-driven innovations could weaken the entire ecosystem [58][59]. - The ability to identify and create consumer demand for technological innovations is critical for the long-term success of China's technology investment landscape, especially in the context of increasing competition with the U.S. [60][61].