【安泰科】工业硅周评—供应收紧持续验证 需求疲态制约反弹（2026年2月5日–2月11日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market continues to exhibit a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating amid a tug-of-war between supply contraction and weak demand [1][3]. Supply Side - The supply side has confirmed a tightening trend, particularly with leading enterprises in Xinjiang continuing their production reduction plans, significantly limiting output [2]. - In the southwestern regions of Yunnan and Sichuan, low operating rates persist due to electricity costs and seasonal factors, with weak recovery intentions [2]. - Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia are still undergoing maintenance, contributing to the overall supply contraction in February, which provides a bottom support for the market but is insufficient to drive prices upward [2]. Demand Side - Overall downstream demand remains weak, with various sectors showing lackluster performance [2]. - In the polysilicon sector, despite previous production cuts and policy disruptions creating a "rush for exports" effect, overall inventory pressure remains high, leading to cautious procurement of industrial silicon [2]. - The organic silicon market continues to see weak trading, with mainstream DMC prices holding steady between 13,800 and 14,000 yuan/ton, and production strategies focusing on staggered and self-disciplined reductions, providing limited support for industrial silicon consumption [2]. - The aluminum alloy sector has seen a slight decline in operating rates as the Spring Festival approaches, with procurement strictly based on rigid demand, limiting any potential increase [2]. - The export market remains tepid, with weak purchasing intentions from overseas clients and limited tender quantities, putting continued pressure on FOB prices [2]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is characterized by "clear supply contraction, persistent weak demand, fluctuating futures, and stable spot prices" [3]. - The core market dynamics have shifted from production reduction expectations to actual demand verification [3]. - Prices are currently caught between cost support and demand suppression, with a slow downward adjustment in the fluctuation center [3]. - In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with a focus on the actual inventory reduction situation before and after the Spring Festival, as well as the resumption progress and procurement rhythm of downstream industries [3].