人民币延续升值趋势，中国资产受益链条明晰

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the RMB has become a market consensus, with expectations for the USD/RMB exchange rate to reach 6.7 by the end of the year, benefiting Chinese assets from international capital inflows [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since breaking the 7.0 mark at the end of last year, the RMB has continued to appreciate, nearing 6.90 in January [1][3]. - Factors driving the RMB appreciation include a shift towards a "weak dollar" and stronger-than-expected export growth, supported by robust demand for foreign exchange settlements at year-end [3]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will experience a gradual appreciation throughout the year, with offshore RMB showing stronger trends compared to onshore rates [3]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to attract international capital, particularly benefiting the stock market, with Hong Kong stocks likely to see the first positive effects, followed by A-shares [5]. - The anticipated net inflow of foreign capital into Hong Kong and A-shares this year is expected to exceed that of 2025, with technology, high-end manufacturing, and core consumer assets being the main focus areas [5]. Group 3: Divergence in Commodity Market Impact - There is a divergence in views regarding the impact of RMB appreciation on domestic commodity prices, with some expecting a trend while others remain skeptical [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that industrial metals may benefit, while the energy sector may perform poorly; however, there is uncertainty regarding a trend in commodity prices overall [5]. Group 4: Rational Perspective on RMB Appreciation - Despite the RMB's appreciation, it is crucial to analyze the transmission mechanism of capital inflows and stock market performance, as past examples, such as Japan, show that appreciation does not always equate to foreign capital inflows [6][7]. - The current RMB appreciation is driven by trade surpluses and export settlements, and future capital inflows will depend on the recovery of domestic demand and economic fundamentals [6][7].