固收指数月报 | 彭博中国多只指数开年正回报！国债收益率今年潜在关口与阻力位何在？

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through its flagship Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index [3] - The January report indicates a positive return of 0.37% for the Bloomberg China Aggregate Index, with a decrease in 30-day volatility [5] - The Bloomberg China High Liquidity Credit (LCC) Index recorded a return of 0.23%, while the Kungfu Bond Index (USD-denominated Chinese credit bonds) achieved a return of 0.41% in January [5] Index Performance Summary - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index (I08271CN) had a year-to-date return of 0.37% with an index level of 245.33 [7] - The 10+ Year Treasury Index (I08283CN) recorded a return of 0.41% with an index level of 325.69, while the 1-3 Year Index (I08279CN) had a return of 0.19% with an index level of 213.95 [7] - The China USD Credit (Kungfu) Index (I29380US) achieved a return of 0.41% with an index level of 204.21 [7] Market Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield in China is expected to test the 2% mark in 2026, driven by factors such as the issuance of long-term special government bonds and optimistic expectations regarding re-inflation under the government's "anti-involution" policy [9] - The credit spread of the Asian emerging market high-yield dollar bond index narrowed by approximately 40 basis points to 318 basis points in the first two weeks of 2026, reflecting typical early-year optimism [9]