去美元化、波动性加剧，美元、日元、瑞郎避险“光环”褪色？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the varying performances of traditional safe-haven currencies—USD, JPY, and CHF—highlighting the ongoing shift in their status as safe-haven assets, with CHF emerging as the most stable option among G10 currencies [3][12]. Group 1: USD Analysis - The process of de-dollarization is accelerating, influenced by U.S. policies under the Trump administration, leading to a significant decline in the dollar's status as a global reserve currency. The dollar index fell by 9.37% in 2025 and continued to decline in 2026 [4][5]. - The IMF reports that the share of dollar reserves held by global central banks has dropped from over 60% in the early 2000s to below 40% by the end of 2025, indicating a trend towards non-dollar assets [5]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is contributing to the dollar's weakness, with projections indicating a potential average value of 94-96 for the dollar index in 2026, a decrease of about 3%-5% from current levels [6][7]. Group 2: JPY Analysis - The Japanese yen has experienced increased volatility, with significant fluctuations in its exchange rate against the dollar, influenced by political changes and monetary policy signals from the Bank of Japan [9][10]. - Market expectations regarding the yen's future are mixed, with potential for further depreciation against the dollar if the ruling party's fiscal policies lead to increased inflation pressures [10][11]. Group 3: CHF Analysis - The Swiss franc has shown remarkable stability, appreciating nearly 13% against the dollar in 2025 and reaching an 11-year high in early 2026, driven by Switzerland's political stability and low debt levels [12][13]. - However, the strong franc poses challenges for Switzerland's export-driven economy, with inflation remaining low at 0.1%, raising concerns about deflationary pressures [13][14]. - The Swiss National Bank is cautious about intervening in the currency market, with predictions suggesting a slight depreciation of the franc against the dollar by the end of the year [14].