市场权威专家：观察货币政策效果要看累积效应

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has introduced a series of monetary and financial policies to support the real economy, focusing on optimizing economic structure and enhancing support for key domestic demand areas such as private enterprises, technological innovation, green initiatives, and consumption [3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The recent monetary policy adjustments are seen as one-time actions, but their impact on the real economy will be ongoing, with a focus on cumulative effects [3]. - Since the second half of 2018, the reserve requirement ratio has been lowered 18 times, providing sustained medium- and long-term liquidity in the banking system and financial markets [3]. - Policy interest rates have been reduced 10 times since the peak of the current interest rate cycle, with a total decrease of 1.15 percentage points, leading to a reduction in corporate loan rates and personal mortgage rates by 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis with Global Monetary Policies - While major central banks in developed economies have been tightening monetary policy through interest rate hikes, China's monetary policy remains relatively loose, aiming to gradually lower the overall financing costs in society [4]. - Despite developed economies being in a rate-cutting cycle, their policy interest rates are still higher than pre-hike levels, indicating a more stable and continuous support for the real economy from China's monetary policy [4]. - Current personal mortgage rates in China are approaching the average levels seen during the "zero interest rate" periods in the US, UK, and Japan, with consumer loan rates around 3%, which is even lower than the average of 8% during the US "zero interest rate" period [4].