6月降息概率飙升！深夜，美国重磅通胀数据公布

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders now estimating an 83% probability of a rate cut in June, up from 49.9% prior to the data release [1][2]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5%, and down from 2.7% in December 2025, marking a recent low in inflation [1][2]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, and the year-on-year increase is the lowest since 2021 [1][2]. Price Trends by Category - Housing costs, a major component of CPI, saw a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase dropping to 3% [2]. - Food prices increased slightly by 0.2% month-on-month, with an annual increase of 2.9% [2]. - Energy prices significantly contributed to the decline in inflation, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, including a 3.2% drop in gasoline prices [2]. - Vehicle prices showed weakness, with new car prices rising only 0.1% month-on-month, while used car and truck prices fell by 1.8% [2]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of growth alongside declining inflation, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting a GDP growth rate of 3.7% for Q4 2025 [3]. - However, the labor market remains weak, with an average monthly job addition of only 15,000, indicating structural issues in the economic recovery [3]. - The impact of the import tariffs imposed in April 2025 has not led to widespread inflation, affecting only specific product categories [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Considerations - Current inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, leading to differing views within the Fed regarding monetary policy, with some members favoring continued tightening while others advocate for rate cuts [3]. - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, set to be released on February 20, 2026, will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions [4].