Core Viewpoints - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced expectations of technology leading the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5] - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while being cautious of rapid bull markets that may lead to sharp declines [2][6] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology + low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][6] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not in the real estate chain but are related to national strategies in three sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][7] - AI remains a core focus in technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [3][9] - The investment focus for the next 3 to 6 months should be on cyclical and manufacturing sectors, as these align with national strategies and economic transformation [7][8] Market Dynamics - The core drivers of the current market uptrend are improvements in national governance and stronger expectations for technology-led economic growth, with significant achievements in diplomacy, defense, and trade contributing to economic resilience [4][5] - The market is currently at a critical juncture around the 4100-point level, with the need for new drivers to support further upward movement, as previous gains have largely reflected the core drivers [6][12] - The transition from a "dumbbell" market structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips indicates a shift in risk appetite, with low-volatility, high-dividend stocks losing their appeal [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to experience a period of consolidation and differentiation, with the potential for long-term growth remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][10] - The public fund commission rate reform is prompting a strategic shift in brokerage research departments, moving towards comprehensive service for institutional clients beyond just public funds [17] - The securities research industry is seen as a field of continuous learning and growth, with a call for new talent to join and contribute to the evolving landscape [18]
“一生磨一剑!”独家对话黄燕铭,A股下一站,重点关注这两个方向!
券商中国·2026-02-13 23:49