金银的“安全资产”属性褪色，波动率超科技股

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver are traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets due to their stable price fluctuations compared to risk assets like stocks. However, recent data indicates that gold futures have exhibited greater volatility than the Nasdaq 100 index, suggesting a shift in their perceived stability as speculative funds flow into these metals [2][3]. Group 1: Volatility and Market Dynamics - The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) reported that the gold price volatility index surpassed 40 in January, exceeding the volatility of the Nasdaq 100 index, indicating a market expectation of significant future price fluctuations for gold [3]. - Gold and silver are considered "stateless currencies," serving as a refuge during wars and financial crises, which contributes to their traditional role as a store of value [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Influences - Recent data from BCA Research indicates a sharp increase in fund inflows into gold ETFs from China and other Asian countries, particularly after the second half of 2025, driven by declining real interest rates and limited domestic investment opportunities in China [5]. - Asian investors are highly sensitive to price levels and tend to follow market trends closely, which has led to increased volatility in gold prices, including a potential for significant adjustments following price declines [5]. Group 3: Recent Price Movements - On February 13, gold futures rebounded to close at $5046 per ounce, a $97 increase (2%) from the previous day, while silver futures also saw a rebound. This was influenced by a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold and silver [5]. - Despite the rebound, the previous day's decline on February 12 saw gold futures drop by 3% due to fears surrounding AI's impact on the software industry, indicating that gold and silver did not fulfill their expected role as safe-haven assets during market turmoil [6].