钨价开启“跳涨模式”

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten price has surged significantly since the beginning of the year, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from downstream industries, leading to a "jumping price mode" in the market [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of February 12, the average price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) reached 696,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 51.6% [2]. - The domestic supply of tungsten has decreased by about one-third to one-fourth due to intensified crackdowns on illegal mining activities, which has contributed to the current price surge [5][6]. - The actual annual supply of tungsten ore in China is estimated to be around 120,000 to 130,000 tons, with about 20% of this supply being unregulated and thus not circulating in the market [6][7]. Impact on Downstream Industries - The rapid price increase has led to a trust crisis in the spot market, with some downstream companies facing difficulties in fulfilling contracts due to soaring prices [4][9]. - Major tungsten companies, including Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH) and Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ), have issued multiple price increase notifications this year, reflecting the upward pressure on prices [1][5]. - The cost of tungsten in the manufacturing of tools is relatively low, accounting for about 10%-15% of the total cost, which may limit the impact of price increases on end products [12]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Industry experts express mixed sentiments about the sustainability of the current price levels, with some predicting potential adjustments in the near future due to extreme market emotions [14][15]. - The ongoing supply constraints, coupled with the increasing demand from traditional and emerging sectors, suggest that tungsten prices may remain elevated in the medium to long term [13][14]. - The tightening of mining quotas and the limited new production capacity are expected to keep the supply-demand imbalance unresolved in the short term [13][14].