“马斯克的预言并非危言耸听”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential disappearance of 80% of apps due to the rise of personal agents that can manage data more effectively than traditional applications, as predicted by industry experts like Peter Steinberg and Elon Musk [3][5][9]. Group 1: The Shift to Personal Agents - Personal agents are expected to take over the functions of apps by managing data and making decisions based on user information, such as sleep and stress levels [3][5]. - The transition from apps to personal agents signifies a shift from user interface (UI) centered development to intent and execution focused development [6][7]. - Developers will need to prioritize backend API responsiveness and data quality, moving away from traditional metrics like daily active users (DAU) to task completion rates (TSR) [8]. Group 2: Potential Survivors in the App Market - The article identifies three types of applications likely to survive: social software that can handle complex human intentions, services requiring offline fulfillment like ride-hailing and food delivery, and creative tools that serve as extensions of human intent [10][11]. - The importance of smart hardware is emphasized, as it can collect real-time data that traditional apps cannot, aiding in understanding user intent [12]. Group 3: New Business Models and Revenue Streams - As apps evolve into APIs, traditional internet advertising and traffic models will be disrupted, shifting towards AI-driven recommendation systems and service commissions [13]. - The competition will focus on intent distribution and matching rather than merely selling ad space, with potential revenue streams emerging from AI task execution [13]. Group 4: Security Risks in a No-App Era - The article highlights significant security risks associated with personal agents, including the potential for a single point of failure where a compromised agent could lead to extensive data breaches and asset manipulation [15]. - The transition to AI-driven interactions raises concerns about privacy and the potential for creating information silos, emphasizing the need for secure and trustworthy service providers [15].