“高市日元贬值”碰壁，历史性情景渐远

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing a depreciation trend but remains confined within the 150-160 yen per dollar range, contrary to market expectations for a breakthrough [2][4]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation Dynamics - The yen's depreciation momentum is gradually waning, influenced by Prime Minister Kishida's proactive fiscal policies, which initially led to speculative selling of the yen [2]. - Despite the yen approaching the historical depreciation threshold of 160 yen per dollar, it has not managed to break through the 150-160 yen range [2][4]. - The anticipated acceleration of yen depreciation post-election has not materialized, with the yen even appreciating to the 152 yen range due to weakening U.S. economic indicators [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yen Value - The rapid depreciation of the yen from the 115 yen range in early 2022 to below 160 yen was driven by speculative selling from hedge funds, followed by actual demand-driven selling from businesses [6]. - Japan's trade and service account deficit significantly narrowed, with the deficit reported at approximately 4.24 trillion yen in 2025, down from about 21 trillion yen in 2022, indicating improved export profitability and competitiveness [6]. - The structural changes in demand have limited the impact of actual demand-driven yen selling on further depreciation, as the supply-demand distortion has been largely corrected [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Without new market factors to drive yen depreciation or U.S. dollar appreciation, a breakthrough beyond the 160 yen threshold seems unlikely [8]. - The market's focus is shifting towards the monetary policy directions of the U.S. and Japan, particularly regarding potential changes in the Federal Reserve's stance and the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies [8].