40%保险新品收益不确定

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is shifting towards dividend insurance products due to low interest rates, with a focus on "guaranteed returns + floating dividends" as a new wealth management strategy for consumers [3][5][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - Traditional guaranteed whole life insurance is being replaced by dividend insurance, which offers floating returns, as over 40% of new products launched in 2026 are expected to be dividend insurance [5][6]. - The maximum guaranteed interest rate for traditional insurance has dropped to 2.0%, while the maximum for dividend insurance is now 1.75%, making dividend products more attractive despite lower guaranteed returns [5][6]. - Major insurance companies are rapidly launching new dividend insurance products, indicating a consensus in the industry regarding this transition [6][10]. Group 2: Consumer Implications - Consumers must accept the "floating nature" of returns when purchasing dividend insurance, leading to a decrease in guaranteed returns [8][9]. - The structure of dividend insurance includes a guaranteed return influenced by the predetermined interest rate and an uncertain dividend component, which reflects a rebalancing of interests between insurers and clients [8][10]. - The shift to dividend insurance is seen as a way for insurance companies to lower rigid liability costs and mitigate the risk of "interest spread loss" in a prolonged low-interest environment [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The realization of dividends is directly tied to the insurance company's operational performance, making the selection of a reliable insurer crucial for consumers [12][13]. - The dividend from these products is derived from the company's "three differences" in mortality, expense, and investment returns, with at least 70% of distributable surplus allocated to policyholders [12][13]. - The investment strategies of leading insurance companies are undergoing significant adjustments, with a projected increase in investable funds, indicating a potential for higher returns for consumers [12][13]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory measures are in place to manage consumer expectations and prevent misleading sales practices regarding dividend levels [15][16]. - Consumers are encouraged to evaluate the historical dividend realization rates of insurance products, which reflect the actual dividends paid compared to projected figures [16][17]. - The decision-making process for consumers should involve assessing their long-term financial needs, selecting appropriate products, and choosing companies based on their operational stability and historical performance [17].