美联储，降息风向大变！特朗普亲信突然改口

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reveal a shift in monetary policy stance, with a notable softening of the previously strong dovish position, particularly highlighted by Stephen Milan's recent comments on interest rate adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Employment and Inflation Data - The latest employment data shows that initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, the lowest since January 10, significantly below the market expectation of 225,000, indicating a resilient labor market [1]. - Concerns about rising inflation are resurfacing, driven by escalating oil prices due to tensions in the US-Iran situation, which could contribute to upward inflationary pressures [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Stephen Milan, a previously dovish Federal Reserve governor, has revised his stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction to below 2.75% by the end of the year, down from the previous forecast of below 2.25% by the end of 2026, indicating a potential cumulative cut of 1 percentage point from the current 3.5%-3.75% range [2]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed a hawkish view, stating that current interest rates are near neutral and he is not inclined to support further rate cuts in the short term, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence [3]. Group 3: AI's Impact on the Economy - The potential impact of AI technology on the economy has become a significant topic among Federal Reserve officials, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noting that while AI has not fundamentally changed the economy yet, its development holds significant potential [4]. - Daly supports the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and anticipates one to two more rate cuts this year, while contrasting views from Trump's nominee for Fed Chair, who believes AI is reshaping economic structures and suggests that the Fed should lower rates accordingly [5]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Considerations - The interplay of a resilient labor market, inflation concerns, and the transformative potential of AI technology suggests that Federal Reserve officials are reflecting on current economic fundamentals while considering divergent future policy directions [5].