新材料2026年度策略：关注国产替代&自主可控领域，重视新质生产力发展（附报告）

Core Viewpoint - The chemical materials industry is entering a new transformation cycle driven by energy transition, AI integration, and green low-carbon initiatives, with a focus on domestic substitution and self-control opportunities in the context of geopolitical tensions [2][3][55]. Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic and international demand is experiencing a mild recovery, supported by favorable policies in real estate and consumption, while overseas demand is bolstered by fiscal and monetary easing in the US and Europe [2][28]. - The chemical industry has seen a decline in fixed asset investment, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 8.2% by November 2025, indicating the end of the expansion phase that began in 2021 [2][47]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The chemical materials industry is expected to undergo significant changes, focusing on three main areas: accelerated energy transition, the penetration of AI and synthetic biology, and the establishment of core competitiveness through green low-carbon initiatives [3][55]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in domestic substitution and self-control sectors, particularly in semiconductor materials, new energy materials, and coatings [4][57]. Group 3: Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach $75.98 billion by 2025, with an 8.4% year-on-year growth, driven by the expansion of global wafer fabs and the recovery of demand for mature process products [5][64]. - The domestic localization rate for key materials such as CMP polishing materials and photoresists is below 30%, indicating significant potential for import substitution [6][64]. Group 4: New Energy Materials - The wind power sector is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with China's cumulative installed capacity projected to reach 1.3 billion kilowatts by 2030, supported by favorable policies and market dynamics [7][69]. - The energy storage industry is experiencing explosive demand driven by policy support, AI applications, and export growth, with key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing significant price increases [7][72]. Group 5: Coatings - The coatings industry is shifting towards value competition, with high-end industrial coatings and military special coatings emerging as new growth engines despite overall market contraction [8][79]. - The global shipbuilding coatings market is expected to reach $6.28 billion by 2025, with domestic manufacturers gaining ground against foreign competitors [10][89].