有色金属新周期，钨价起飞了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in tungsten prices and the performance of tungsten companies, particularly Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has seen substantial stock price increases due to the booming tungsten market and its strategic positioning in the industry [4][5][6]. Group 1: Tungsten Market Dynamics - The prices of tungsten have surged dramatically, with tungsten powder reaching over 1800 RMB per kilogram by February 25, 2026, compared to just 315 RMB per kilogram in Q1 2025, marking an increase of over 470% [6]. - The performance of the tungsten sector is entering a concentrated realization phase, with many leading stocks hitting historical highs as the market experiences a new cycle [5][6]. Group 2: Zhangyuan Tungsten's Performance - Zhangyuan Tungsten's stock price has increased significantly, with a rise of over 80% in just ten trading days from February 6 to February 27, and a total increase of 186% year-to-date, adding 31.5 billion RMB to its market capitalization [8][17]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 260 million to 320 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 51% to 86% [7]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Tungsten - Tungsten is recognized as a critical industrial material, often referred to as "industrial teeth," due to its high melting point, density, hardness, and corrosion resistance, making it essential in modern industries, military applications, and high-end manufacturing [18]. - China holds a dominant position in the global tungsten market, with 240 million tons of tungsten reserves, accounting for 52% of the world's total, and producing 67,000 tons, which is 83% of global output [18]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of tungsten is tightening due to stricter mining quotas and environmental regulations, with a 6.5% year-on-year decrease in the total mining quota for tungsten concentrate in 2025 [19]. - Demand for tungsten is increasing in high-end sectors such as renewable energy, military, and semiconductors, further driving market demand [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The global tungsten supply-demand gap is expected to widen from 18,500 tons in 2026 to 19,200 tons by 2028, indicating a persistent shortage that will support higher tungsten prices [21]. - Zhangyuan Tungsten has announced price adjustments for its hard alloy products due to rising raw material costs, indicating that even at high price levels, strong downstream demand will sustain tungsten prices [21].