伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，现在怎样了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which has significant implications for global shipping and oil prices [2][13]. Group 1: Impact on Shipping and Insurance - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a potential 50% increase in insurance premiums for vessels passing through this critical oil passage [2][6][7]. - Following the announcement, the number of vessels transiting the Strait dropped by approximately 70%, with many ships turning back or waiting in nearby waters [3][4]. - Insurance companies are preparing to cancel policies for vessels transporting commodities like oil and grain, anticipating higher re-negotiation costs for coverage [9][10]. Group 2: Oil Price Reactions - Brent crude oil prices surged by 13% to around $80 per barrel following military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, with fears of supply disruptions driving market volatility [14]. - If the Strait remains blocked, it could threaten about 20% of global oil supply, potentially pushing prices above $100 per barrel, with extreme scenarios predicting prices could reach $120-150 per barrel [14][24]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of the Strait - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route, with approximately 15-20% of the world's oil and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas passing through it [16]. - Historical precedents indicate that while Iran has threatened to close the Strait, it has never fully executed such a closure due to the potential for severe economic repercussions on its own oil exports [22][25]. - The U.S. Department of Energy has acknowledged that even a temporary closure could lead to significant supply delays and increased transportation costs, impacting global energy prices [16]. Group 4: Military and Geopolitical Considerations - Iran possesses various means to disrupt shipping in the Strait, including harassment of vessels and potential missile attacks, but a complete closure would require sustained military presence, which could limit its operational capabilities elsewhere [23][29]. - The article notes that historical patterns suggest Iran is more likely to engage in selective attacks or harassment rather than a total blockade of the Strait [30].