碳酸锂新一轮涨价潮来了

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry is expected to enter a critical development phase in 2026, driven by demand from both power and energy storage sectors, leading to an unexpected increase in demand while supply remains uncertain, resulting in a tight balance in the industry [6][7]. Supply Side - In 2026, global lithium supply is projected to reach 2.14 million tons, with an increase of 440,000 tons, but most of this new capacity will be released after the third quarter of 2026, and uncertainties exist across various supply segments, potentially leading to actual supply falling short of expectations [9]. - Domestic salt lakes, domestic mines, overseas salt lakes, Australian mines, and non-mines are the main contributors to supply growth, with domestic salt lakes expected to contribute 84,000 tons, primarily from core sources like Zangge and Chaharhan salt lakes [11]. - Domestic mines are expected to add 66,000 tons, while overseas salt lakes and Australian mines will contribute 69,000 tons and 78,000 tons respectively, with non-mines being the largest source of new supply at 115,000 tons [11]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium carbonate is being significantly boosted by both power and energy storage sectors, with global lithium battery demand expected to reach 2,886 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and total lithium carbonate demand projected to be 2.1 million tons in 2026, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth [15][21]. - Domestic electric passenger vehicle sales are expected to reach 13.65 million units in 2026, a 5% increase, with battery demand for passenger vehicles growing by 11% [16]. - The global energy storage battery demand is projected to grow rapidly, with significant increases in demand across various regions, particularly in China and the U.S., driven by capacity price subsidies and data center needs [20][21]. Price Side - A two-year upward price cycle for lithium carbonate has been established, with a solid price support level at 120,000 yuan per ton and a recognized reasonable price center at 150,000 yuan per ton, with potential for prices to exceed 200,000 yuan per ton due to supply uncertainties [22][29]. - As of January 22, 2026, domestic lithium carbonate inventory is at a critically low level of 109,000 tons, insufficient for even one month's usage, indicating strong demand for inventory replenishment and supporting price increases [25]. - The pricing mechanism is influenced by both futures and spot market averages, with significant price fluctuations expected in 2026, particularly in Q1 and Q4 when supply is most constrained [29]. Investment Focus - The lithium carbonate market is entering a two-year upward cycle, with a tight supply-demand balance ensuring high price certainty, suggesting that companies with quality lithium resources and significant profit elasticity should be the focus for investment [30].